California Muni Bond Ishares ETF (CMF) are in focus today as the charts are revealing that the Mesa Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) is holding steady above the FAMA, or Fractional Moving Average. This environment typically indicates that there might be a buying opportunity aligning in technicals. When there are crossovers between the FAMA and MAMA, the shares are often widely traded. When the MAMA crosses above the FAMA, it means that the shares are likely to move higher. Conversely the opposite occurs when the MAMA crosses below the FAMA. The Mesa Moving Average was first mentioned by John Ehlers in a paper published in a 2001 edition of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. The below was excerpted from the publication,
“The MESA Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) adapts to price movement based on the rate of change of phase as measured by the Hilbert Transform Discriminator (Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, December 2000). This method features a fast attack average and a slow decay average so that composite average rapidly ratchets behind price changes and holds the average value until the next ratchet occurs.”
Many investors may have noticed that when the stock market has been running bullishly hot for quite some time, market tops can be a very busy place. Trading interest may be noticeably higher when the good times are rolling. This can be tricky because often times, prices may become inflated and somewhat overvalued. Traders will need to pay much more attention to what is going on at the tops of these bull runs. When interest is heightened, traders who got in at much better prices may be looking to unload the winners for quick profits. Doing the proper research can help clear out some of the fog that comes with an oversaturated market. Chartists will most likely be paying attention to price moves and trying to spot the next series of trends that develop. Spotting a trend earlier than the crowd may help the trader sell before the big drop or buy before the big rise. Learning how opportunities unfold and present themselves in the stock market may take a lot of time and effort to master. Professional traders are typically a few moves ahead of the novice and relatively naive trader. Getting to that next level should be on the mind of any dedicated trader or investor. Learning from past mistakes can make a huge difference in the future of the trader’s profits and psyche.
Traders may be also be focusing in on the ATR or Average True Range indicator when performing stock analysis. At the time of writing, California Muni Bond Ishares ETF (CMF) has a 14-day ATR of 0.11. The average true range indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder in order to measure volatility. The ATR may assist traders with figuring out the strength of a breakout or reversal in price. It is important to note that the ATR was not designed to determine price direction or to predict future prices.
Currently, the 14-day ADX for California Muni Bond Ishares ETF (CMF) is sitting at 39.19. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would support a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would identify a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would lead to an extremely strong trend. ADX is used to gauge trend strength but not trend direction. Traders often add the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to identify the direction of a trend.
Checking in on some other technical levels, the 14-day RSI is currently at 78.93, the 7-day stands at 85.95, and the 3-day is sitting at 95.21. Many investors look to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of a particular stock to help identify overbought/oversold conditions. The RSI was developed by J. Welles Wilder in the late 1970’s. Wilder laid out the foundation for future technical analysts to further investigate the RSI and its relationship to underlying price movements. Since its inception, RSI has remained very popular with traders and investors. Other technical analysts have built upon the work of Wilder. The 14-day RSI is still a widely popular choice among technical stock analysts.
Investors may be watching other technical indicators such as the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. The Williams %R is a momentum indicator that helps measure oversold and overbought levels. This indicator compares the closing price of a stock in relation to the highs and lows over a certain time period. A common look back period is 14 days. California Muni Bond Ishares ETF (CMF)’s Williams %R presently stands at -6.67. The Williams %R oscillates in a range from 0 to -100. A reading between 0 and -20 would indicate an overbought situation. A reading from -80 to -100 would indicate an oversold situation.
Taking a closer look from a technical standpoint, California Muni Bond Ishares ETF (CMF) presently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of 143.31. Typically, the CCI oscillates above and below a zero line. Normal oscillations tend to stay in the range of -100 to +100. A CCI reading of +100 may represent overbought conditions, while readings near -100 may indicate oversold territory. Although the CCI indicator was developed for commodities, it has become a popular tool for equity evaluation as well.
As we move deeper into earnings season, investors may be trying to figure out how to best position the portfolio for the rest of the calendar year. Maybe things haven’t gone as well as planned in the first half of the year, and a few tweaks need to be made to bolster profits in the second half. Closely watching the earnings reports may be a good way to see what companies are getting things right, and what companies have some work to do. Many investors will take notice if a company posts a much larger earnings beat or miss than expected. Not only will the stock most likely become a bit more volatile, but overall interest may be heightened as investors try to piece together the puzzle and figure out why there was such a discrepancy between estimates and actuals. Once the dust settles and the picture becomes a little clearer, investors may be able to properly rotate in or out of a certain name or sector. Finding stocks that look good on paper but have fallen out of favor with certain investors may be a good place to start doing some further number crunching. Locating those overlooked sectors with growth potential might be a good way to uncover those stocks that are ready to make a run.